Local Weather Forecast

Wednesday, July 4, 2007 at 7:01pm by

Tonight:  Periods of showers and thunderstorms with a low of 74.  Winds from the east at 5-10 mph.

Thursday:  Periods of showers and thunderstorms with a high of 84.  Winds from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  Locally heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding.

Thursday Night:  Periods of showers and thunderstorms with a low of 74.  Winds from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  Locally heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding.

Friday:  60% chance of showers and thunderstorms with a high of 86.  Winds from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

Forecast Discussion:  While the Fourth of July has been drier than most days we’ve had recently (only a few periods of light to moderate rain so far today!), tomorrow looks like it will be rather wet again.  Showers currently off the Gulf Coast are once again expected to spread inland overnight and into tomorrow as a rather large and unusually strong upper-low continues to remain in south Texas.  Although last night’s model runs that predicted heavy rains for the Brazos Valley didn’t pan out for today, we should consider ourselves fortunate instead of expecting the same to happen tomorrow.  Over the next 2 days, expect rainfall totals across all of southeast Texas to be from 1-3 inches with the possibility of locally heavy rainfall considerably higher then this.  Luckily, the showers and thunderstorms should be moving at a decent speed (more than 10-15 mph), so this should help prevent incredibly large rainfall totals like were seen last week.  The predictability of this weather pattern hasn’t been of much use past 1-2 days, so it is hard to tell if we will finally dry out for the weekend as the models have been constantly trying to do after 2-3 days (at some point you just have to say they are useless in this situation).  I would tend to stick with persistence and expect shower activity to continue into the weekend, although probably not as widespread as tomorrow.  This is one time where I hope my forecast is wrong, because most of Texas doesn’t need (and some areas outside the Brazos Valley literally cannot handle) any more rain.